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    Quote Originally Posted by Initial B View Post
    According to FiveThirtyEight, TFC now has a 99% chance of winning the Supporter's Shield. Is that too high?

    Currently there are 9 teams that can still catch us theoretically

    NYCFC 9 pts back (18 points possible) (68 max)
    Fire 14pts back (18) (63)
    NYRB 18 (21) (62)
    Atlanta 20 (27) (66)

    Portland 15(15) (59)
    Seattle 17 (21) (63)
    VWFC 18 (24) (65)
    SKC 18 (21) (62)
    Houston 21(21) (59)

    If all those teams win every single game between now and the end of the season.

    We need to get single point to knock out Houston and Portland
    5-6 SKC,Seattle, NYRB, and the Fire
    7 leaves only Atlanta and NYCFC assuming their records allow at that point

    3 wins and a tie in our last 6 basically clinches the Supporter shield even if every other team wins all their remaining games as that takes us to 69 points

    99% pretty much seems about right.

    The earliest we can clinch the Supporter shield Would be either the 20th or 23rd. If we beat LA on the 16th and Montreal on the 20th with Colorado beating NYFC and New England or Orlando split the points or beating Atlanta on the 13th or 16th we would have 65 points and no other team could get more than that. Unofficially at that point we will have clinched we would then need at least one point on the 23rd to do so officially. If we win the next 3 games extending a winning streak to 8 and NYCFC drop any points then we would also clinch the SS
    Last edited by Kaz; 09-10-2017 at 10:21 PM. Reason: edited for clarity

 

 

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